Israel declares part of Lebanon a combat zone amid tensions with Hezbollah. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 3.3% YES.

US blamed Hezbollah for Lebanon escalation with full Trump admin backing. Israel-Hezbollah peace deal by May 2026 at 9.5% YES; Israel strikes 4 countries in Nov

Netanyahu declares war on Hezbollah amid rising tensions. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 9.4% YES.

Israeli official warns of military escalation in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 9.3% YES.

Israeli bombardment of Lebanon escalates tensions. Peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 11.8% YES.

IDF escalates conflict with strikes on 70 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 11.8% YES.

IDF strikes over 70 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 11.2% YES.

Hezbollah destroyed Israeli tanks, escalating tensions. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 10.2% YES.

Israel targets Hezbollah leader amid rising tensions. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 8.4% YES.

Netanyahu visits the hospital amid planned strikes on Hezbollah. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 8.2% YES.

Israel's air raids in Lebanon escalate tensions. Strike on four countries in 2026 at 45.6% YES, peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31 at 7.2% YES.

IDF launches ground offensive in Southern Lebanon. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 7.8% YES.

Israel ordered mass evacuations in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire tensions. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 7.4% YES.

Israel launched a large-scale military operation in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 9.3% YES.

Israeli military actions in Lebanon continue, raising concerns for peace. Israel strikes in 2026 market at 46.5% YES, while peace deal odds drop to 9.3% YES.

Israel escalates military operations, reducing chances for talks. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 9.6% YES.

Israeli strikes in Lebanon escalate tensions, leading to skepticism about a peace deal. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 9.8% YES.

Israel escalates military operations against Hamas and Hezbollah. Peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 8.3% YES.

Israel intensifies military actions against Hezbollah. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 6.9% YES; US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 18.5% YES.

Israel escalates strikes on Hezbollah. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 6.9% YES.

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