Russia's economy contracts for first time in three years in Q1 2026
Russia's GDP fell 0.3%-0.5% in Q1 2026, its first contraction in three years. VAT hikes, labor shortages, and high rates drove…
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Jerome Powell named interim Fed Chair until Kevin Warsh takes over
Jerome Powell named interim Fed Chair until Kevin Warsh takes over. Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026 at 99.8% YES.
US, Israel consider military escalation against Iran amid regional tensions
US and Israel consider military escalation against Iran. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 15.5% YES, down from 18%…
Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham weaken UK PM in 12 hours
Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting, and Andy Burnham weakened UK PM Keir Starmer in 12 hours. Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026 at 26%…
Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon, escalating regional conflict
Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon, escalating regional conflict. Israel closes its airspace by May 31 at 30.5% YES.
Trump calls Iran's latest nuclear proposal 'unacceptable,' raising stakes for…
Trump called Iran's nuclear counter-proposal 'totally unacceptable,' rejecting terms that retain enrichment capabilities and…
Stephen Miran exits Federal Reserve, paving way for Kevin Warsh as next Fed…
Stephen Miran resigns from the Federal Reserve Board, clearing a seat for Kevin Warsh, confirmed as the next Fed chair with…
Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair, spotlight on Kevin Warsh nomination
Jerome Powell stepped down as Fed Chair, confirming market expectations. Powell out by May 31, 2026 at 99.9% YES.
US strikes kill Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, escalate tensions
US strikes killed Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, raising tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 59% YES.
China to buy 200 Boeing planes in major US trade deal
China plans to buy 200 Boeing planes in a major trade deal. Boeing aircraft purchase announcement by May 22 at 29.5% YES.
Brent crude rises amid US-Iran tensions, impacting WTI price expectations
Brent crude rises $3.54 amid US-Iran tensions. WTI closing above $103 on May 15 at 9.0% YES.
Hyperliquid Policy Center pushes back against CME and ICE regulatory concerns
Hyperliquid pushes back as CME and ICE press CFTC over onchain perps, arguing its real time records improve transparency.
US-Iran tensions drive WTI crude oil to $105.4 amid supply disruption fears
WTI crude oil surged to $105.42 amid U.S.-Iran tensions. WTI above $105 on May 15 now at 68.5% YES.
UN reports Israeli military obstructed peacekeepers in Lebanon, raising tension
UN reports Israeli military obstructed peacekeepers in Lebanon, signaling reduced confidence in ceasefire. Ceasefire extension by…
Israel and Lebanon extend ceasefire by 45 days amid US-brokered talks
Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by 45 days. Ceasefire announcement by May 15 at 88% YES.
Kraken's Ink flagship lender taps RedStone as official oracle provider
RedStone's oracle partnership ensures secure data for the Ink ecosystem, aiding Tydro's rapid response to a security incident.
Israel targets Hamas commander amid escalating military operations
Israel targeted a Hamas commander amid escalating military operations. Ceasefire extension by May 15 now at 9.5% YES.
OpenAI launches ChatGPT personal finance preview for US Pro users
OpenAI launches a ChatGPT personal finance preview for US Pro users, adding account connections, dashboards, and financial…
Iran tensions drive WTI crude oil surge, Fed rate cut odds fall for 2026
Iran tensions drive WTI crude oil surge. WTI crude oil up on May 15 at 89.5% YES; no Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 67.0% YES.
Lombard migrates over $1 billion in Bitcoin backed assets to Chainlink CCIP
Lombard migrates over $1B in Bitcoin-backed assets to Chainlink CCIP after reviewing cross chain security.
US-Iran tensions keep Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026 amid inflation concerns
US-Iran tensions keep Fed rate cuts unlikely in 2026. No rate cuts in 2026 at 67% YES.
Kraken parent Payward cuts 150 jobs amid IPO and expansion push
Payward cuts 150 jobs as Kraken’s parent streamlines operations ahead of its planned IPO and seeks fresh capital.
Grayscale report: US inflation pressures delay Fed rate cuts until Sept 2027
Grayscale reports U.S. inflation delays Fed rate cuts until September 2027. Rate cut in June and July at 1% YES.
Trump rejects Iran nuclear proposal, dims deal prospects
Trump rejects Iran's nuclear proposal, reducing deal prospects. US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 28% YES.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair, succeeds Jerome Powell
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Powell out by May 31, 2026 at 99.9% YES.
Zelensky warns of Russian plans to target Kyiv's decision-making centers
Zelensky warns of Russian plans to target Kyiv's decision-making centers. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 48.5% YES.
E-Estate announces 1 year live: Washington DC summit as real estate…
New York, USA, 15th May 2026, Chainwire
Bybit ranks no. 2 in open interest among major crypto exchanges, leads CEXs in…
Dubai, UAE, 15th May 2026, Chainwire
Bitcoin falls below $79,000 amid bond yield, inflation concerns
Bitcoin falls below $79,000 amid bond yield and inflation concerns. Bitcoin above $80K by May 17 at 32% YES.
US redirects 75 ships in Strait of Hormuz amid escalating tensions with Iran
US redirects 75 ships in the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions with Iran. Daily transits of 0-10 by May 31 at 70.5% YES.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
Iran rejects the transfer of enriched uranium, citing distrust of the US. US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 at 5.5%…
CME, NYSE lobby Washington to regulate Hyperliquid over manipulation and…
CME and NYSE push for regulating Hyperliquid trading amidst manipulation fears, impacting KYC standards and compliance costs.
Strategy may sell Bitcoin to fund $1.5B convertible note buyback
MicroStrategy plans to sell Bitcoin to fund a $1.5 billion convertible note buyback. Sale by December 31, 2026 at 93.5% YES.
Strategy may sell Bitcoin to finance $1.5B convertible note repurchase
Strategy plans Bitcoin sales to fund $1.5B convertible note repurchase, marking a shift in its Bitcoin repurchase strategy.
Trump signals openness to 20-year limit on Iran nuclear program
Trump shows willingness for a 20-year limit on Iran's nuclear program. Deal before 2027 now at 61.5% YES.
Israel strikes Lebanon amid US peace talks, ceasefire extension in doubt
Israel strikes Lebanon amid ongoing peace talks. Ceasefire extension by May 15 at 36.5% YES.
Khamenei's death fuels speculation on Iran leadership change by year-end
Khamenei's death raises speculation about Iran's leadership change. Leadership change by December 31 at 34.5% YES.
US rejects Iran's 14-point proposal amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
US rejects Iran's proposal amid tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by December 31 at 76.5% YES.
THORChain loses nearly $11 million in suspected exploit as RUNE tumbles 13%
THORChain exploit steals $11M across major networks, highlighting ongoing security and laundering challenges in DeFi space.
Israel escalates military actions in Lebanon, dims diplomatic meeting prospects
Israel escalates military actions in Lebanon, reducing chances for talks. Ceasefire extension by May 15 at 40% YES.