## Market Snapshot
The “US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027” market is currently priced at 59% YES, showing a slight increase from 56% a day ago. The “Iran leadership status by end of 2026” market is at 3% YES, slightly down from 3% a day ago. The “Trump speaking engagements in May” market remains largely unaffected by this news.
## Key Takeaways
– The U.S.’s aggressive actions in Venezuela and Iran suggest increased global tensions, likely impacting diplomatic developments. – Recent developments appear consistent with a decreased probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 due to heightened military tensions. – The report of Ayatollah Khamenei’s death significantly raises the potential for instability in Iran’s leadership by the end of 2026.
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