Trump claims US strikes thwarted Iran's nuclear ambitions

## Market Snapshot

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 is priced at 15% YES, showing a modest increase from 12% yesterday. The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran before 2027 stands at 17.5% YES, down from 20% the previous day. The probability of Trump agreeing to withdraw troops by June 30 is at 12.5% YES, reflecting a decrease from 14.5% yesterday.

## Key Takeaways

– Trump’s statements appear to suggest a reduced likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, consistent with decreased YES outcomes. – The emphasis on military action may indicate an increased possibility of a US invasion of Iran before 2027, supportive of YES outcomes. – The focus on military rather than diplomatic solutions suggests a lower probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30, consistent with decreased YES outcomes.

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