Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran with security team

## Market Snapshot

The “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” market shows a 39.5% YES price, up from 36% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the “U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027” market is priced at 31.5% YES, an increase from 30% the previous day. The “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” market has moved to 7.5% YES, down from 8% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways

– Recent developments suggest an increased likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, as indicated by the 39.5% pricing for a YES outcome. – Trump’s meeting to discuss combat operations appears consistent with a scenario where a U.S. invasion of Iran becomes more probable, now priced at 31.5% YES. – Market pricing suggests a decreased probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal, as indicated by the decline to 7.5% YES.

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