Market Snapshot
The market for a potential U.S. invasion of Iran is currently priced at 17.5% for a YES outcome, slightly down from 18% the previous day. Meanwhile, markets assessing the survival of the Iranian regime in the event of U.S. military strikes are priced at 98.6% YES. The probability of Trump restarting Project Freedom by June 30 is at 11.0% YES, unchanged since the last update.
Key Takeaways
The report of Iran potentially shooting down a U.S. helicopter suggests increased geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets appear to view this incident as consistent with a higher likelihood of U.S. military action, affecting the odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran.
