Market Snapshot
The “US Invasion of Iran” market is currently priced at 19.5% YES, up from 18% 24 hours ago. The “US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Predictions” market shows a 73% likelihood of no meeting, increasing from 64% in the same period.
Key Takeaways
Recent US military strikes on Iran appear to escalate the ongoing conflict, consistent with a scenario where regional tensions rise.
The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran appears to have increased, with market pricing suggesting a higher probability of further military escalation.
