Market Snapshot
The “US Invasion of Iran” market shows a 17.5% YES probability, slightly down from 18% in the previous 24 hours. Meanwhile, the “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization” market has dropped to 9.5% YES, reflecting recent tensions.
Key Takeaways
The U.S. military action appears to escalate tensions, consistent with scenarios supporting increased military engagement.
The strikes suggest heightened disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, likely affecting maritime traffic normalization efforts.
