Exchange of fire reported between US and Iranian forces in Strait of Hormuz

## Market Snapshot

The “US Invasion of Iran” market is currently priced at 21.5% for a YES outcome, up from 18% 24 hours ago. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” market is priced at 59.5% YES, while the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May” market is at 0.7% YES.

## Key Takeaways

– The recent exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz appears to have increased the likelihood of a US military escalation, as indicated by pricing movements in related markets. – The incident suggests heightened instability, reducing the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by the end of May. – Market pricing implies concerns about further disruptions, impacting expectations for traffic normalization by July 31.

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