Market Snapshot
The “U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027” market currently prices at 22.5% YES, up from 19% a day ago. The “countries sending warships through Hormuz by June 30, 2026” market shows 9% YES for the UK. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31” market sees a decrease to 25.5% YES from 30%.
Key Takeaways
The incident appears to increase the likelihood of U.S. military action, as reflected in market pricing.
There is an observed shift in likelihood that allied countries could send warships to Hormuz, supportive of a YES outcome.
