Trump post depicting nuclear strike escalates US-Iran tensions

## Market Snapshot

The market for a “US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31” is now priced at 7.5% for a YES outcome, down from 9% a day ago and 18% a week ago. Tensions have impacted pricing in related markets with decreased expectations for diplomatic resolutions.

## Key Takeaways

– President Trump’s post appears to have escalated tensions, suggesting a reduced likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. – The depiction of a nuclear strike could indicate a breakdown in negotiations, impacting the potential for the US to obtain Iranian enriched uranium. – Market pricing suggests participants view the potential for a US-Iran peace deal as significantly undermined following the post.

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