## Market Snapshot
The “next US x Iran diplomatic meeting” market is seeing odds decrease for a YES outcome following Trump’s warning, suggesting a reduced likelihood of imminent talks. Meanwhile, the “Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026” market is priced at 12.5% YES, down from 16% just 24 hours earlier.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s ultimatum to Iran appears to elevate the risk of military action, suggesting a decreased probability of near-term diplomatic engagement. – Market activity suggests a declining likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by the end of June 2026. – The current geopolitical climate, underscored by Trump’s statements, appears to reflect a move away from peaceful negotiations.
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