## Market Snapshot
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market is currently pricing at 12.5% YES for a deal by June 30, 2026, down from 16% a day ago. WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026 are showing 58.5% YES for reaching $110, indicating an increase in likelihood due to geopolitical tensions.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s statement suggesting potential military action against Iran appears to decrease the likelihood of a permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026. – Market pricing suggests an increased expectation for higher WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026, consistent with elevated geopolitical risks. – The focus on military options may indicate a decreased likelihood of a near-term US-Iran diplomatic meeting.
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