## Market Snapshot
In the “US-Iran Peace Deal” market, the probability of a YES outcome has decreased, with current pricing reflecting skepticism about a deal. Conversely, the “US Military Action in 2026” market has seen an increase in YES pricing, suggesting increased likelihood of further US military engagements. The “US-Iran Nuclear Deal” market shows decreased confidence in a deal being reached by the deadline, with pricing indicating a lower probability of a YES resolution.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s announcement of military strikes on Iran and Venezuela appears to decrease the likelihood of a US-Iran peace deal. – The escalation in military actions suggests an increased probability of the US engaging in further military actions in 2026. – Markets seem to interpret the strikes as undermining diplomatic efforts towards a US-Iran nuclear deal.
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