## Market Snapshot
The market “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026” currently shows a 99.8% YES probability, consistent with Powell’s temporary role until Warsh assumes the position. The sub-market for May 15 reflects a 17% YES probability, indicating lower confidence in an immediate transition.
## Key Takeaways
– Market activity suggests Powell’s exit as Fed Chair by May 31 is nearly certain, consistent with the temporary appointment. – The confirmation of Kevin Warsh appears to increase the likelihood of a smooth transition, as indicated by market pricing. – The designation of Powell as acting Chair supports expectations of continuity until Warsh is formally sworn in.
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