## Market Snapshot
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair is currently priced at near certainty, with market activity suggesting a 99% likelihood of Jerome Powell’s departure by June 30, 2026. The confirmation of Warsh has led to a notable increase in the perceived likelihood of Powell’s exit.
## Key Takeaways
– Kevin Warsh’s preparation to lead the Federal Reserve appears to solidify his confirmation as Chair, suggesting a smooth transition. – Markets interpret Warsh’s confirmation as nearly certain, with Powell’s departure by June 30, 2026, overwhelmingly priced at 99% YES. – Warsh’s emphasis on Fed independence and slower balance-sheet reduction indicates potential policy shifts under his leadership.
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