## Market Snapshot
Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal: Currently priced at 11.2% YES, previously 7% YES. Israel Strikes in 2026: Currently priced at 45% YES, previously 49% YES. Israel Withdraws from Lebanon: Currently priced at 9.5% YES, previously 9% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– IDF strikes on Hezbollah sites suggest increased military activity, consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of a peace deal. – The increased likelihood of Israel conducting strikes in multiple countries by the end of 2026 appears to be supported by recent actions. – The strikes indicate a deeper military engagement in Lebanon, suggesting a reduced probability of an Israeli withdrawal.
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