Israel intensifies airstrikes on Lebanon amid ongoing Hezbollah attacks

## Market Snapshot

The market for an “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026” shows a current pricing of 0.1% YES, down from 9% a week ago. The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market is priced at 7.5% YES, with recent price movements also suggesting a decrease in probability.

## Key Takeaways

– Recent developments appear consistent with continued escalation, affecting peace deal probabilities. – Markets suggest a decreased likelihood of an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by June 2026. – Increased Israeli military operations are implied by current market activity, consistent with broader regional conflict.

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