## Market Snapshot
The market for an “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026” is priced at 2.7% YES, down from 3% 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market shows a 9% YES probability.
## Key Takeaways
– Recent demolition activities by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon appear to suggest an escalation in military operations. – The intensified actions are consistent with a decreased likelihood of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by the specified deadline. – Market pricing suggests participants view the probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of May as highly unlikely.
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