Israel launches ground invasion into southern Lebanon amid failed ceasefire talks

## Market Snapshot

The “Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal” market is currently priced at 0.1% for a YES outcome, down from 9% a week ago. The “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon” market shows an 8% YES probability for a withdrawal by June 30, 2026, up from 6% 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon appears to significantly decrease the likelihood of a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026. – Recent developments suggest a reduced probability of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by the deadline, reflecting increased military engagement. – Markets indicate a major escalation in the conflict, consistent with a breakdown in diplomatic efforts between Israel and Hezbollah.

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