## Market Snapshot
The market for an Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 9.3% YES, down from 10% yesterday. The Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting market remains inactive with no recent price changes.
## Key Takeaways
– Recent developments appear consistent with a decreased likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah, as indicated by the market’s downward move. – The initiation of a large-scale military operation by Israel in Lebanon suggests deteriorating relations, impacting the probability of diplomatic meetings. – The Iran airspace closure market remains unaffected, suggesting participants do not view the Israeli operation as directly influencing Iranian airspace decisions.
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