## Market Snapshot
Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal market is currently priced at 8.3% YES, down from 9% 24 hours ago. Israel Withdraws from Lebanon market shows 10% YES for June 30, 2026, up from 9% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– The targeting of Hezbollah’s leader appears to have decreased the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah. – Increased tensions in Beirut suggest reduced chances for a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by the end of May. – Markets indicate a potential for more military engagement, affecting the probability of Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
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