## Market Snapshot
The “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?” market is currently priced at 7.5% YES, down from 11% 24 hours ago. The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?” market stands at 10% YES, up from 8% 24 hours ago.
## Key Takeaways
– The IDF’s ground offensive in Southern Lebanon appears to decrease the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah. – Recent military actions suggest a deepening conflict, making an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by June 2026 seem less probable. – The escalation has led to significant market movements, indicating a shift in expectations regarding peace and withdrawal scenarios.
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