## Market Snapshot
The market for an “Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026” is currently priced at 7.4% YES, down from 13% 24 hours ago. The “Israel strikes in 2026” market shows a 46.3% YES probability, up from 45% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– The mass evacuations ordered by Israel suggest heightened tensions and are consistent with reduced chances of a permanent peace deal with Hezbollah. – The breakdown in the ceasefire appears to decrease the likelihood of an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by the end of May. – Increased military activity in the region may indicate a higher probability of Israeli strikes in multiple countries in 2026.
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