Israel issues evacuation warning in southern Lebanon's Tyre amid rising tensions. Permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026 at 2.9% YES.
Market Snapshot
The market for an Israel-Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026, is currently priced at 2.9% YES. The market for Israel striking four countries in 2026 stands at 32% YES. Recent developments indicate a potential increase in military activity.
Key Takeaways
The Israeli military’s evacuation warning appears to suggest heightened tensions in southern Lebanon.
This development is consistent with scenarios where the possibility of a ceasefire extension decreases.
Israel ordered mass evacuations in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire tensions. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026…
Israeli official warns of military escalation in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 9.3% YES.
Israeli forces escalate military actions in Lebanon, reducing peace deal chances. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 2.7%…
IDF launches ground offensive in Southern Lebanon. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 7.8% YES.
Israel launched a large-scale military operation in Lebanon. Permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026 at 9.3% YES.
Israel launches a ground invasion into southern Lebanon amid failed ceasefire talks. Permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026 at 0.1%…
