Israeli airstrikes on Beirut resume as US ceasefire efforts collapse

## Market Snapshot

The “Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal by May 31, 2026” market is currently priced at 0.1% YES, declining from 9% a week ago. The “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026” market shows 8.5% YES, up from 6% in the last 24 hours.

## Key Takeaways

– The resumption of Israeli strikes on Beirut suggests a significant decrease in the likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah. – Market pricing implies that the collapse of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire efforts is consistent with a decrease in the probability of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon. – The developments appear to have minimal direct impact on the Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market.

## Article Body