## Market Snapshot
Israel’s intensified air raids in southern Lebanon have impacted several prediction markets. The likelihood of Israel striking four countries in 2026 is currently priced at 45.6% YES. The probability of a permanent peace deal with Hezbollah by May 31, 2026, has decreased to 7.2% YES. The chance of a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon is also affected, though market specifics are not detailed.
## Key Takeaways
– Recent air raids appear to increase the likelihood of Israel striking multiple countries in 2026. – The probability of a permanent peace deal with Hezbollah appears to have decreased significantly. – Diplomatic engagement between Israel and Lebanon appears less likely due to heightened tensions.
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