## Market Snapshot
The Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal (May 31) market sits at 9.3% YES, down from 10% over 24 hours and from a 7-day high near 22%. The Israel strikes 4-countries market prices at 45% YES, off from 49% yesterday.
## Key Takeaways
– Pricing appears consistent with NO outcome support on the peace deal market, as active large-scale hostilities and explicit U.S. backing of Israel reduce any near-term resolution prospect. – The Trump administration’s on-record attribution of blame to Hezbollah suggests Washington has hardened its stance, consistent with scenarios where Israeli military action continues or expands. – The diplomatic meeting market shows no measurable volume, suggesting market participants view an official Israel-Lebanon engagement before May 31 as increasingly implausible.
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