## Market Snapshot
In the Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal market, YES pricing is at 0.1%, showing a slight uptick from previous levels. The Israel strikes in 2026 market shows a 41.8% YES pricing, with a small increase from 40% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Israel withdraws from Lebanon market sees YES pricing at 7.5%, up from 6% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– Hezbollah’s acceptance of a full ceasefire without demanding immediate Israeli withdrawal suggests a significant de-escalation, consistent with a permanent peace deal scenario. – Iran’s suspension of talks and mobilization actions indicate continued high-state mobilization, suggesting potential for ongoing conflict. – The Netanyahu-Trump call suggests active diplomatic engagement, which may indicate efforts towards de-escalation in the region.
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