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Trump cancels scheduled military strike on Iran, easing tensions
Trump cancels scheduled military strike on Iran, easing tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 40% YES.
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US strikes kill Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, escalate tensions
US strikes killed Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, raising tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 59% YES.
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US, Israel consider military escalation against Iran amid regional tensions
US and Israel consider military escalation against Iran. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 15.5% YES, down from 18% yesterday.
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Trump considers Iran strikes as Israel readies for potential war escalation
Trump considers military strikes on Iran as Israel prepares for conflict. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 13.5% YES.
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Israeli military strikes on Doha, Tehran escalate Iran conflict
Israeli military strikes on Doha and Tehran escalate tensions. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 13% YES.
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Trump, Xi agree to keep Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions
Trump and Xi agree to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid US-Iran tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal by June at 21% YES.
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US Central Command redirects 81 vessels, disables four in Iran blockade
US Central Command redirected 81 vessels and disabled four in its Iran blockade. Trump restarting Project Freedom by May 31 at 37.5% YES.
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Drone attack on UAE nuclear plant escalates US-Iran tensions
Drone attack on UAE nuclear plant escalates US-Iran tensions. Permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2026 at 13% YES.
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Trump warns Iran, escalating tensions and impacting peace deal prospects
Trump warns Iran, escalating tensions and reducing peace deal prospects. Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 12.5% YES.
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Trump considers military options as US-Iran nuclear talks stall
Trump considers military options as US-Iran nuclear talks stall. Diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 49% YES.
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Trump hints at military action against Iran, impacting peace deal odds
Trump hints at military action against Iran, reducing peace deal odds. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 12.5% YES.
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US, Israel prepare for potential military action against Iran amid tensions
US and Israel prepare for military action against Iran. Iranian military action against neighbors rises to 62% YES.
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Trump post depicting nuclear strike escalates US-Iran tensions
Trump's post depicting a nuclear strike escalates US-Iran tensions. US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 now at 7.5% YES.
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Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran with security team
Trump discusses resuming combat operations against Iran. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 39.5% YES; US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 31.5% YES.
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Trump convenes Situation Room meeting as US-Iran nuclear deal stalls
Trump holds a Situation Room meeting amid stalled US-Iran nuclear talks. Nuclear deal by June 30 at 20.5% YES, next diplomatic meeting by then at 48.9% YES.
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Iran proposes long truce, Hormuz reopening in US nuclear talks
Iran proposed a long truce and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in US nuclear talks. Nuclear deal by June at 24.5% YES, traffic normalization by May at 5.2% YE
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Iran proposes truce, Strait of Hormuz reopening amid nuclear talks
Iran proposes a truce and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic returns to normal by end of May at 5% YES.
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US maintains naval blockade on Iran, Trump firm on no concessions
US maintains naval blockade on Iran as Trump refuses concessions. Normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 at 43.5% YES.
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Trump hints at further US military action against Iran amid ongoing conflict
Trump hints at further US military action against Iran. Permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2026 at 11.5% YES.
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Iran tightens Strait of Hormuz control amid US-Iran diplomatic tensions
Iran tightens control over the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions. US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 48% YES.
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Trump delays Iran strike at Gulf states' request amid rising tensions
Trump delays Iran strike at Gulf states' request. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 at 45% YES.