US maintains naval blockade on Iran, Trump firm on no concessions

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” is currently pricing at 43.5% YES, a slight increase from 42% over the past 24 hours. The market for “Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” shows 46.0% YES, down from 48% a day ago. “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” is priced at 15.5% YES, down from 18% in the last 24 hours.

## Key Takeaways

– Trump’s announcement appears to decrease the likelihood of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 31, suggesting active blockade enforcement. – The probability of 20 ships transiting the Strait by May 31 decreases, consistent with the US’s firm stance and enforcement actions. – Market pricing suggests a low likelihood of Trump announcing the lifting of the blockade by May 31, reflecting his declared position.

## Article Body