## Market Snapshot
The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” is currently priced at 38% YES, down from 46% 24 hours ago and 70% a week ago. The market for “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31, 2026” is at 0.1% YES, reflecting continued skepticism about any near-term resolution.
## Key Takeaways
– Trump’s statement about maintaining the blockade appears to reduce the likelihood of normalizing Strait of Hormuz traffic by July 31. – The U.S. blockade announcement market suggests a nearly certain continuation of the blockade beyond May 31, 2026. – Trump’s dismissive remarks on Iran’s halting of talks suggest a reduced probability of imminent diplomatic engagement.
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