LONDON: When the US and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran on Feb. 28, some 59 percent of gamblers on the controversial predictions site Polymarket wagered the Iranian regime would survive Operation Epic Fury.
As of Monday, 99 percent are now betting on the regime’s survival. Just 1 percent believe the regime will fall by the end of June.
On Feb. 28, as Israeli and US weapons rained down on Iran, 55 percent wagered the regime would collapse by the end of 2027. By Monday, just 13 percent backed that proposition.
Indeed, with the ebb and flow of ceasefires, continued missile exchanges, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US-Iran war passing its 100-day mark, the Iranian regime does not appear to be facing imminent collapse.
“Undoubtedly, the US and Israeli escalation against Iran has put both the Iranian economy and security under immense strain, but we cannot definitively state that this will be an existential threat to the regime’s survival,” said Caroline Rose, a senior director at the Soufan Center.
