Market Snapshot
The Polymarket on whether France, UK, or Germany will strike Iran by June 30 is priced at 1.8% YES, a slight decrease from 2% a day ago. The market on the survival of the Iranian regime amidst US strikes is currently at 98.4% YES, up from 98% a day ago. Meanwhile, the US invasion of Iran before 2027 holds at 17.5% YES, down slightly from 18% a day ago.
Key Takeaways
Iran’s missile and drone attacks on US-linked bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan appear to increase the likelihood of a retaliatory strike from France, UK, or Germany.
The Iranian regime’s ability to orchestrate these attacks suggests continued control and resilience, supporting market views of its survival.
