Iranian Regime to Collapse in 2026? Crypto Prediction Market Betting on This Outcome Even as Trump Threat

Despite President Donald Trump intensifying war rhetoric, cryptocurrency bettors doubt the Iranian regime is at risk of falling in 2026.

No Big Threat To Mojtaba Khamenei?

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices in only 10% chance that the Islamic Republic, led by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, is overthrown or collapses.

The odds rose by 3 percentage points over the past week, but remain well below the 56% peak seen in early March following the assassination of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Nearly $22 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most popular bets on Polymarket.