Market Snapshot
The “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” market is currently priced at 12.5% YES, reflecting a slight increase from 12% a day ago. In contrast, the “Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?” market is at 5% YES, up from 3% a day ago.
Key Takeaways
Markets suggest that the planned Israeli strikes, even if halted, are consistent with increased likelihood of Iranian regime instability.
The news appears to decrease the probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran, as indicated by market movements.
