Market Snapshot
The “Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?” market is currently priced at 97.8% for a YES outcome. Recent pricing shows a slight decrease from 98% over the past 24 hours. The “Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?” market shows a 30% YES probability, up from 28% a day ago.
Key Takeaways
The US military’s confirmation of completed strikes appears to be consistent with a limited scope of action, suggesting support for the Iranian regime’s survival.
The likelihood of Iran closing its airspace seems to have increased following the US military’s latest strikes, which could indicate defensive measures by Iran.
