Market Snapshot
The market for Iran’s airspace closure by June 10 is currently priced at 9% YES, with a significant increase to 60% YES for July 31. The market for Israel striking four countries in 2026 stands at 35% YES. Meanwhile, the market for an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, is priced at 4% YES.
Key Takeaways
The report of US strikes inside Iran and IDF warnings appears consistent with increased likelihood of further military escalation.
Market pricing suggests that an airspace closure by Iran is more likely in the longer term, with July 31 showing higher expectations.
