Market Snapshot
The “Iran Airspace Closure by June” market shows a 16.6% YES probability for June 10, down from 34% 24 hours ago. The “Israel Strikes in 2026” market has a 40.8% YES probability, up from 32% a day earlier. The “Israel-Iran Permanent Peace Deal by June 30, 2026” market is at 3.4% YES, decreasing from 5%.
Key Takeaways
The report of Israeli airstrikes against Iran appears to increase the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, although immediate market pricing has not fully adjusted.
The confirmation of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets is consistent with a higher probability of Israel striking multiple countries in 2026.
