IRGC claims missile attack on US aircraft at Jordan's Al-Azraq Air Base

Market Snapshot

The “Iran Airspace Closure by June” market shows increased pricing supportive of a YES outcome, with sub-market odds at 28.5% for June 12, up from 14% a day ago. The “Israel Strikes in 2026” market is also priced higher at 41.8% for a YES outcome by December 31, rising from 35% over the past 24 hours.

Key Takeaways

The IRGC’s missile launch claim suggests increased tensions in the Iran-U.S. confrontation.

Pricing indicates markets view the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace by June 12 as more probable.