Market Snapshot
The “US Military Action in 2026” market is currently priced at 31.1% YES, showing a slight increase from 31% a day ago and up from 26% a week ago. This reflects an upward trend in the perceived likelihood of U.S. military action.
Key Takeaways
The reported IRGC strike on a U.S. base in Jordan appears to increase the likelihood of U.S. military response, consistent with YES outcome support.
Market activity suggests that participants view this event as a significant escalation in the Iran–U.S. conflict.
