Market Snapshot
“US Forces Enter Iran” is priced at 17.5% YES, down slightly from 18% over 24 hours. “US Military Action in 2026” sits at 25.9% YES, easing from 26% the prior session.
Key Takeaways
CENTCOM’s confirmation of active intercepts and strikes appears consistent with a live military exchange, not a contained diplomatic episode.
Pricing in the “US Forces Enter Iran” market suggests participants view the current engagement as predominantly aerial, with ground-invasion scenarios still viewed as unlikely.
