IRGC retaliates against US base amid heightened tensions with Iran

## Market Snapshot

Iran Military Action Against Neighbors is priced at 0% YES, reflecting no immediate military strikes on neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the US Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension market has fallen to 42.5% YES, down from 62% just 24 hours ago. The US-Iran Nuclear Deal market is currently at 8.6% YES, a decrease from 20% a day earlier.

## Key Takeaways

– The IRGC’s retaliatory attack on a US base suggests increased chances of military actions involving Iran, but current market pricing indicates no immediate aggression toward neighbors. – The likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire extension appears to have decreased, with market pricing showing a significant drop. – The probability of reaching a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of May has notably diminished, as reflected by market odds.

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