Iran emphasizes missile power over dialogue, impacting US-Iran deal prospects

## Market Snapshot

US-Iran Agreement/Ceasefire Extension market is currently priced at 59.5% YES, up from 36% a day ago. The US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 market shows 51.5% YES, while the Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026, is at 14.3% YES.

## Key Takeaways

– Qalibaf’s statement appears to reduce confidence in diplomatic resolutions, suggesting a harder Iranian stance. – The emphasis on missile power is consistent with increased regional tensions, impacting peace probability. – Markets suggest decreasing likelihood of a US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension by June 7.

## Article Body