Market Snapshot
The U.S. invasion of Iran market is priced at 17.5% YES, down slightly from 18% 24 hours ago but up from 16% seven days ago. The Iranian regime survival market holds at 98.4% YES, edging up from 98% yesterday.
Key Takeaways
Targeting air defense and radar infrastructure appears consistent with sustained strike campaign preparation rather than isolated action, suggesting participants view escalation as ongoing.
Pricing in the invasion market at 17.5% YES suggests markets view ground offensive scenarios as unlikely near-term despite the intensifying air campaign.
