Galaxy Research has significantly reduced its expectations for the Clarity Act to become law in 2026, lowering the odds from 50% to 30%. The research firm cited the increasingly congested Senate calendar as a primary obstacle. The Clarity Act, a digital asset market-structure bill, passed the House in July 2025 and advanced in the Senate Banking Committee this year but has yet to be scheduled for a final vote. This adjustment by Galaxy Research appears consistent with broader market sentiment, which has also seen a reduction in the likelihood of the bill’s passage this year.
Key Takeaways
Galaxy Research’s revised forecast suggests a decreased likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
The Senate’s crowded calendar is highlighted as a significant impediment to the bill’s progress.
Market pricing aligns with this outlook, indicating reduced confidence in the Clarity Act’s enactment this year.
