Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% less than a month ago, as the Senate races to advance the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.
Galaxy's head of research, Alex Thorn, said the firm's latest downgrade is based on the closing window of time before lawmakers leave Washington.
While Senate negotiators finally released the Clarity Act text this week, Thorn said the coalition needed to pass the bill is "not visibly in place" and argued it needs a "last-ditch effort" and a legislative "grand bargain" to reach President Donald Trump's desk.
"The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle.
It is now the enemy," Thorn wrote, citing opposition from a handful of Democrats, uncertainty over Republican support and just days remaining to begin the floor process if the bill has any chance of becoming law this year.
