Galaxy Research has cut its estimate of the odds that the Clarity Act will become law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, citing timing and Senate calendar constraints.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, wrote in a Friday post that the team has reduced the odds of Clarity Act passage in 2026 to 50-50, "as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago."
According to Thorn, the downgrade primarily reflects the Senate calendar rather than the substance of the bill. Galaxy had previously lowered the Clarity Act's passage odds to 60% on June 5, but no floor date has been set, and no motion to proceed has been scheduled, he said.
The analyst also explained that President Donald Trump further complicated the bill's prospects. Trump warned last week that he would withhold his signature from a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, further squeezing the Senate's legislative calendar and "thereby hurting the Clarity Act's odds," Thorn said.
"For a 60-vote bill that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks," Thorn wrote, adding that Senate Majority Leader Thune should announce floor time by early July at the latest.
