https://www.avemarialaw.edu/clarity-act/
Galaxy Research has revised its estimate of the likelihood that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, lowering the probability from 50% to 30%. This adjustment reflects concerns about the U.S. Senate’s 60-vote threshold, which requires significant bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster. The CLARITY Act, a crucial piece of crypto market-structure legislation, passed the House in 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026. However, it has yet to secure a full Senate vote, and the legislative calendar is tightening.
Markets appear to be responding to Galaxy Research’s revised assessment by decreasing the probability of the CLARITY Act’s passage. The prediction market indicates a current 36.5% chance of the Act becoming law by the end of 2026, down from 42% just a week ago. These developments suggest that market participants are increasingly uncertain about the bill’s prospects as the Senate grapples with procedural hurdles and other legislative priorities.
The CLARITY Act’s passage would have significant implications for the regulatory oversight of digital assets in the U.S., delineating the roles of agencies like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and SEC. The ongoing developments and market responses highlight the complex dynamics at play in the legislative process for crypto regulation.
