Galaxy Research lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, with Polymarket pricing the bill’s chances even lower at 44%.
Why Galaxy Says This Is About The Calendar, Not The Bill
The bill has sat unchanged on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 since June 1, after clearing Senate Banking 15 to 9 on May 14.
No floor date has been set and no motion to proceed has been scheduled. Staff-level reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture committee texts continues, but there’s been no public agreement on combined legislative text and no signal on timing.
“The downgrade is primarily related to the calendar, not the substance of the bill,” Galaxy’s Alex Thorn wrote.
